Courses/Analytical Reasoning/Forecasting Under Radical Uncertainty
Expert6 lessons • 7h 0m

Forecasting Under Radical Uncertainty

When historical patterns break down. Scenario planning, expert judgment aggregation, and preparing for fat-tailed events.

COVID-19. The 2008 financial crisis. The rise of smartphones. None of these were predicted by extrapolating trends. This course teaches forecasting methods for the world as it actually is: non-stationary, fat-tailed, and full of surprises. You'll learn to combine quantitative models with structured expert judgment, communicate uncertainty honestly, and build strategies that are robust to being wrong.
Your Progress0%
Skills you'll master:
Scenario PlanningSuperforecastingTail Risk AnalysisAntifragile Strategy
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⚠️ Prerequisites

Syllabus

0 of 6 lessons complete
1
The Limits of Prediction
📖Reading•45m
2
Structured Expert Judgment
💻Interactive Lab•60m
3
Scenario Planning for Strategic Uncertainty
🎮Simulation•90m
4
Fat Tails and Extreme Events
📖Reading•50m
5
Combining Models and Experts
📊Case Study•60m
6
Communicating Uncertainty to Stakeholders
👥Peer Review•75m